Utility Performance Panels in the ShakeOut Scenario

The ShakeOut Scenario assessed earth-science impacts, physical damage, and socioeconomic impacts of a hypothetical M7.8 southern San Andreas Fault earthquake. Among many detailed studies were special studies of 12 lifelines, 7 of which were performed by panels of employees of the utilities at risk. Panels met for four hours. Panelists were presented with the scenario’s earth science impacts and previously estimated damage to “upstream” lifelines. They then hypothesized a realistic outcome of the earthquake on damage and service restoration, identifying research needs and mitigation options. The panel process worked well: panelists were well qualified and seemed to fairly assess realistic earthquake impacts and restoration, probably more realistically than an outside consultant would have been able to do, thus improving the ShakeOut. Panelists gained insight into lifeline interaction, mutual-aid needs, communication capabilities, and backup supplies. Southern California Edison, for example, enhanced its planning and preparedness for a large Southern California earthquake. [DOI: 10.1193/1.3584121]